The battle lines in the Indo-Pacific are clearly defined.
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While the world's attention is focused on the challenges posed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the lines of war in the Indo-Pacific are clearly defined. Addressing the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier this month, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin made it clear that the United States would stand behind its allies, including Taiwan, although the world's attention is focused on the challenges. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is clearing the lines of war in the Indo-Pacific. Addressing the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier this month, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin made it clear that the United States would stand by its allies, including Taiwan.
Austin met with his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe, during a conversation where the two reiterated that they wanted to better manage their relationship, but saw no progress in resolving differences. When it was Feng's turn to take the stage, he roared that "the pursuit of Taiwan's independence is the last resort" and warned that "if anyone dares to separate Taiwan from China, we [China] will not look back to fight."
During his visit to Japan, US President Joe Biden warned that China was "dangerously flirting" with Taiwan, underlining US intentions to intervene militarily to protect the island if attacked.
It was a reminder that Taiwan is now the most important flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific as relations between the world's pre-eminent powers and its obvious challengers deteriorate. In recent months, China has repeatedly infiltrated Taiwan's airspace to show its strength. In May, Taiwan had to deploy 22 fighter jets, as well as electronic warfare, early warning and anti-submarine aircraft, and China warned of 30 warplanes sent to its air defense zone. During his visit to Japan, US President Joe Biden warned that China was "dangerously flirting" with Taiwan, underlining US intentions to intervene militarily to protect the island if attacked.
This was the second time Biden had suggested that the United States would defend Taiwan as a change in US foreign policy. White House officials later clarified that US policy on Taiwan has remained unchanged, but there is an element of deliberate ambiguity about Washington's sanctity. This is important because Biden linked the Sino-Taiwan issue to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Biden said, "If US do not align with Ukraine and Russia, then what message does it broadcast to China about trying to of necessity and roughly trying to occupy Taiwan?" Beijing refuted this parallel, arguing that "the Taiwan and the Ukraine scenarioes are fundamentally different." But, contrary to his view in Ukraine, in response to the question of whether they would use military force to defend Taiwan, Biden made it clear: "Yes, this is the commitment we have made." This is important because Biden linked the Sino-Taiwan issue to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has suggested that the United States reaffirm its commitment to Taiwan and that it is time for Washington to clarify that Washington will protect Taiwan. In Abe's assessment, this could increase restrictions in the region. But it is equally likely that Beijing will take this change as Cassus Bailey and Taiwan will come into the crosshairs of great power politics.
After dozens of Chinese warplanes entered Taiwan's self-proclaimed air defense identification zone, a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft flew over the Taiwan Strait, demonstrating the United States' "commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific."
The debate over Taiwan is now changing the outline of the US-China commitment as never before. After dozens of Chinese warplanes entered Taiwan's self-proclaimed air defense identification zone, a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft flew over the Taiwan Strait, demonstrating the United States' "commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific." This led the People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command to mobilize air and ground forces. This new aggression is the new norm in Sino-US relations. Fifty years after the former US President Richard Nixon visited China and re-established the terms of engagement between the two countries, a new phase in this bilateral partnership has begun. The issue of Taiwan is now considered to be the epicenter of their mutual talks.
Ukraine is learning new things on both sides of the crisis equation. The waters of the Indo-Pacific are overflowing. It is time for all the regional nations, including India, to think carefully about their own strategic choices and prepare for the struggle that will shape geopolitics accordingly.
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